Note to AGNÈS CALLAMARD on article Gaza and the End of the Rules-Based Order
Appreciated your comments in Foreign Affairs about Gaza. Excellent analysis, until the end of the article. I am reading How Terrorism Ends by Audrey Kurth Cronin and it provides insight into, well, how terrorism ends.
A rules-based order is a valuable tool for creating a standard that is applicable evenly and to all. But it is not going to stop a terror group, nor help in bringing them to the negotiating table. It is also not going to stop Israeli overreaction.
You can't just insist on a ceasefire. You must negotiate your way there.
"For all parties, negotiations may be a type of interaction that is seamlessly connected to more violent forms. To expect the opening of talks to mean the instant cessation of violence is naive and sets up expectations among the broader population that are counterproductive." (How Terrorism Ends, p.37)
and
"Ceasefires are difficult to negotiate if one side has little else besides its ability to strike." (How Terrorism Ends, p.40)
Israel and the Palestinians are not the only ones in this conflict.
Condemning either one without addressing the others in the room is
essentially just talking to yourself. Yes, it would be great if both
parties would agree to a ceasefire. They aren't and they won't.
Pointing at the rules won't bring them there.
Saudi Arabia and Iran
Hamas' attack on October 7th was directly related to the Israel/Saudi Arabia agreement to open up ties. Any proposed ceasefire that doesn't include Saudi Arabia and Iran will not happen.
The United States made the same error in the 90s while attempting to negotiate a political solution during the breakup of Yugoslavia, where the Serbs were not integrated into the plan. The result was extreme violence.
There are so many parties involved in the Gaza conflict, asking for symptoms of the problem to just stop isn't realistic. It certainly isn't effective.
I have yet to see a chart of all the players related to the Gaza conflict and how they are connected. Better minds than mine can do that. But acknowledging them and their role in the conflict is essential to start to talk about a ceasefire.
Because we all know what happens when one of them doesn't feel heard.
