My darlings. I have been away on important business and have left you in the wilderness. I am so sorry.
As noted previously, the jagged price of gas is causing far-reaching forcasts for the future, good and bad. Are these the same people changing their minds all the time on whether to be optimistic about our economic future or not? I mean are the same people, every day, radically changing their course based on the last minute's price of gas? Probably.
Something to watch is the trade deficit, which took an interesting, even fascinating, turn downward. There were two schools of thought. 1 - Hooray! The trade deficit is down! What unexpected joy! 2 - The trade deficit is still much higher than it was this time last year.
Without a doubt, these numbers are going to be something to keep an eye on. As with all information, it is the trend that matters most. Is this a one-time thing? Or is it the beginning of balancing the trade imbalance? No one can answer that today. They can take up oxygen trying to guess, but no one has an answer.
As with any numbers, it is the forces behind the numbers that count the most. Is American consumerism in decline? Are American products in more demand? Two different questions with widely differing implications. If the American consumer is just plain buying less, than that could spell recession. If American products are more in demand, that will affect production and labor, which could spell inflationary pressures.
Econo-girl has been slacking. She will return with more data and predictions once these numbers are further analysed. Ciao!