My darlings. I have been away on important business and have left you in the wilderness. I am so sorry.
As noted previously, the jagged price of gas is causing far-reaching forcasts for the future, good and bad. Are these the same people changing their minds all the time on whether to be optimistic about our economic future or not? I mean are the same people, every day, radically changing their course based on the last minute's price of gas? Probably.
Something to watch is the trade deficit, which took an interesting, even fascinating, turn downward. There were two schools of thought. 1 - Hooray! The trade deficit is down! What unexpected joy! 2 - The trade deficit is still much higher than it was this time last year.
Without a doubt, these numbers are going to be something to keep an eye on. As with all information, it is the trend that matters most. Is this a one-time thing? Or is it the beginning of balancing the trade imbalance? No one can answer that today. They can take up oxygen trying to guess, but no one has an answer.
As with any numbers, it is the forces behind the numbers that count the most. Is American consumerism in decline? Are American products in more demand? Two different questions with widely differing implications. If the American consumer is just plain buying less, than that could spell recession. If American products are more in demand, that will affect production and labor, which could spell inflationary pressures.
Econo-girl has been slacking. She will return with more data and predictions once these numbers are further analysed. Ciao!
3 comments:
I have come to the conclusion that I might as well take my investment money to Las Vegas and make a large wager on the roulette wheel once a year.
I went to business school, and took the standard economics classes, as well as finance classes that supposedly allow one to "forecast" stuff. I might as well use a random number generator.
It is clear to me that the big movers can decide what the market does. My measly shares of stock are nothing compared to what someone who holds hundreds of millions in shares has. If a big mover decided to sell out - stock prices fall while they make a boat load of money betting on the futures market that the stock will fall.
So, off to Vegas I go! Odds math is far more fun and dynamic than the boring economic / finance formulas anyway :)
At least in Vegas one can look at pretty girls serving drinks as one loses one's money. :)
Econo-Girl went to Vegas late last year, and I must confess there is no feeling in the world like sitting at a table, being at the center of the action. The rounds go so fast, though. You can lose a lot, fast.
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