5.27.2005

You Think Europe Would Know Better


The excitement in economics comes from changes that can alter the future. Witness the French struggle with its EU identity. There's a lot at risk here that is being ignored by US business media. If the Europeans dismantle their political and economic unity, there will be one less place for money to rest outside of the US. So that would strengthen the US position as a debtor nation and consumer of the world, simply because wealth will have no other safe place to go. For right now. Keep your eye on India and Indonesia, though.

The whole idea of uniting Europe started after World War II. I guess after that grisly mess, Europeans were invested in not tearing themselves apart again in the near future. So they thought that a treaty between Germany and France on coal and iron would make a strong economic reason not to go to war. Then it expanded to other areas. Then the concept of a United Europe got some traction and leaders began to promote the advantages of overall cooperation between European member states, to include dropping trade barriers.

And indeed, a United Europe would be a formidable economic force. Would be. If it was to happen, that is. You think people there would see past their own national loyalties to the big picture. But even as I type that, it sounds stupid. Everyone identifies themselves in many ways, and nationality is one of them. If Europeans are not identifying themselves as Europeans, then of course they would be reluctant to let their grip on national identity loosen. But what a boon it would be for Europe to be working together to boost trade and negotiate at the international tables. For them. Not for the US.

The upshot of these developments is that the US consumer does not have to change their prolifigate ways, since it looks like foreign monies will still be pouring in to support our debting. That will give US policymakers more time to find ways to encourage saving and put a lid on borrowing so that the hot air in the US economy is let out slowly.

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