I don't know about you, but early morning is when I feel the safest. It's an illusion, of course. There's nothing safer about the gentle, rising light and misty, dewy hues of early morning, logically speaking.
And that logic has certainly born out in and around Georgetown University. MPD has put out the following announcement:
"On Sunday April 17, 2011, approximately 7:35 a.m. a victim was robbed at
knife point while in the 1500 block of 35th Street NW. Personal items were
obtained. The perpetrators approached on foot and ran to a parked vehicle to
make good their escape. The suspects are described as 1: black male,
possibly in his 20’s, medium complexion, 5’8” – 5’9” in height and wearing a
grey jacket. 2: black male, (brandishing a knife), age is described as late
teens to early 20’s, grey jacket, black hat, and 4 inch braided hair.
On Monday April 18, 2011, approximately 6:25 a.m. a victim was robbed at gun
point while in the 3500 block of Winfield Lane NW. Personal items were
obtained. The victim was approached by 2 perpetrators that were dressed in
all dark clothing with black masks covering their faces. One of the
perpetrators was armed with a silver handgun that demanded the property.
The suspects made good their escape in one of 2 awaiting vehicles; a white
SUV and a dark colored vehicle. The dark colored vehicle is reportedly to be
a black Audi – tag numbers were not obtained on either of the vehicles. It
is a possibility that it was recently taken in Montgomery County. "
It would certainly be odd if a mugger would actually own an Audi.
4.17.2011
A Laugh a Minute: Donald Trump For President
Come on, political Washington. Admit it. Donald Trump as President of the United States is a funny as Donald Duck as a Supreme Court Justice.
Wouldn't you just LOVE to see that Presidential debate? The Hair vs. The Brain. I'm eagerly rubbing my hands together already.
Obama: We've stemmed the financial disaster I've inherited, reversed the foreclosure crisis, and got health care reform. What the hell do you want from me?
Trump: Well, first of all, I was talking to my friend Paris Hilton, who also inherited her money and family name, and when you get your foundation of success handed to you, like I have, then you know, as you talk to many famous people, who are personal friends, like me, with other famous and wealthy people, also like me, then you see the world in terms of preserving what you have and not handing it to those deadbeats, like the old ones I threw into the streets to build my towers, also with my name on them.
Obama: Maybe I should put my name on the White House. Would that help?
Trump: Every little garbage can, and I mean it when I say that, every weed whacker has my name on it, in case I forget who I am and how we need to protect America from Muslim extremists. This is America. We can't let the terrorists win. And believe me, they are. (applause)
Obama: There hasn't been a terror attack since I was President. That's what I call success. That's what I call winning.
Trump: To me, it's common sense. If you feel you are under attack, you are under attack. We've been under attack since September 11, 2001! (applause) And I'll tell you, Osama bin Laden is laughing at us, right now. That's not security from where I'm standing.
Obama: No, that's insecurity. Personal insecurity. And the Republicans have been in charge most of the time since September 11th. So you're blaming the Republican Party for your insecurity.
Trump: Well, obviously, I'm not talking about those years. Only the ones after. And you sir, are the primary one responsible for my insecurity now. Am I right? (applause)
Obama: You've never had to make those kind of responsible decisions. You've only been answerable to shareholders in a corporation. You've never made life and death choices for anyone.
At this point, Donald Trump's hair stands up, stretches, and hops off his head. The Donald dives after it. INTERVIEW OVER.
Wouldn't you just LOVE to see that Presidential debate? The Hair vs. The Brain. I'm eagerly rubbing my hands together already.
Obama: We've stemmed the financial disaster I've inherited, reversed the foreclosure crisis, and got health care reform. What the hell do you want from me?
Trump: Well, first of all, I was talking to my friend Paris Hilton, who also inherited her money and family name, and when you get your foundation of success handed to you, like I have, then you know, as you talk to many famous people, who are personal friends, like me, with other famous and wealthy people, also like me, then you see the world in terms of preserving what you have and not handing it to those deadbeats, like the old ones I threw into the streets to build my towers, also with my name on them.
Obama: Maybe I should put my name on the White House. Would that help?
Trump: Every little garbage can, and I mean it when I say that, every weed whacker has my name on it, in case I forget who I am and how we need to protect America from Muslim extremists. This is America. We can't let the terrorists win. And believe me, they are. (applause)
Obama: There hasn't been a terror attack since I was President. That's what I call success. That's what I call winning.
Trump: To me, it's common sense. If you feel you are under attack, you are under attack. We've been under attack since September 11, 2001! (applause) And I'll tell you, Osama bin Laden is laughing at us, right now. That's not security from where I'm standing.
Obama: No, that's insecurity. Personal insecurity. And the Republicans have been in charge most of the time since September 11th. So you're blaming the Republican Party for your insecurity.
Trump: Well, obviously, I'm not talking about those years. Only the ones after. And you sir, are the primary one responsible for my insecurity now. Am I right? (applause)
Obama: You've never had to make those kind of responsible decisions. You've only been answerable to shareholders in a corporation. You've never made life and death choices for anyone.
At this point, Donald Trump's hair stands up, stretches, and hops off his head. The Donald dives after it. INTERVIEW OVER.
4.15.2011
Inflation and Robert Frost - John Mauldin Newsletter
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This is a great free newsletter I have been reading for years.
The Curve in the Road
By John Mauldin | April 8, 2011
In this issue:
The Curve in the Road
Capacity Utilization Is Rising
Inflation Expectations
The Transmission Mechanism
Portland, New York, and Home for a Few Weeks
TWO roads diverged in a yellow wood,
And sorry I could not travel both
And be one traveler, long I stood
And looked down one as far as I could
To where it bent in the undergrowth;
Then took the other, as just as fair,
And having perhaps the better claim,
Because it was grassy and wanted wear;
Though as for that the passing there
Had worn them really about the same,
And both that morning equally lay
In leaves no step had trodden black.
Oh, I kept the first for another day!
Yet knowing how way leads on to way,
I doubted if I should ever come back.
I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.
– Robert Frost
“I shall be telling this with a sigh,” and it is with a sigh that I write about the twisting, uncertain roads of inflation and deflation. Long-time readers know I have made hard arguments for first deflation and then inflation in the US. But the data says the Fed is not seeing around the bend in the inflationary road all that well. Their signs are not giving them warning, and they are in danger of falling behind the curve. This week’s letter is a thought game in which we entertain the possibility of rising inflation in the US. (It will print a little longer, as there are a lot of charts!)
Quickly, Endgame is doing well, and I want to thank those of you who have read the book and given me feedback. I appreciate it. You can read the reviews at Amazon.com . And now to this week’s letter.
The Curve in the Road
Back in 2002 (or so) I was writing about the curve in the road. In fact, that was the working title for Bull’s Eye Investing as I was writing it. The concept is that one cannot see around the curve in the road, so it is very important to read the signs and have good maps as you go along.
Bernanke (and Dudley) have been testifying that inflation is not an issue. But what signs and maps are they reading? Bernanke specifically invokes inflation expectations as being most important, and he contends they are low. They both note that the “output gap” (more on it later) is still high and that wage inflation is unlikely in a period of high unemployment. But, as Greenspan recently said, “The problem is, none of these indicators will tell you when inflation is about to take hold.”
The Economic Cycle Research Institute wrote what I think is a very powerful editorial about the problem with Fed policy and inflation. I will quote some of the more important paragraphs, but you can read the piece in its entirety at http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/2137/.
“By using good cyclical indicators, you can – and we do – correctly forecast when inflation is about to take hold.
“And it’s precisely because the Fed – first under Mr. Greenspan and now under Mr. Bernanke – adamantly believes that inflation turning points can’t be predicted, that the current U.S. recovery stands in danger of being snuffed out prematurely.
“ECRI’s future inflation gauges – which, unlike econometric models, monitor the evolution of self-feeding cycles in inflation – are designed to do just what Mr. Greenspan says can’t be done. Specifically, they are more direct measures of underlying inflation pressures that signal the timing of upcoming inflation cycle turning points. In fact, they also anticipate inflation expectations.
“… The Fed’s ongoing reliance on inflation expectations, along with core inflation and the output gap – which Mr. Greenspan agrees don’t work – strongly implies that they have no workable tools to decide when to pull back on stimulus. Their incoherence about policy timing is rooted in the belief expressed by Mr. Greenspan that forward-looking indicators of inflation can’t tell when inflation is about to take hold.
“Mr. Greenspan and his successor, Mr. Bernanke, are top-notch economists in an echo chamber where they are surrounded by other economists, who all tend to believe, deep down, that the best forward-looking information must be found in market prices. This is an economist’s mistake. Even in the face of compelling evidence that markets aren’t the best predictors of what’s around the bend, it’s really hard for economists to abandon their basic world-view.
“This keeps the Fed chronically behind the curve. The “insurance” taken out by the Fed has been far from costless, especially in terms of the collateral damage from unintended consequences. Yet, damaging as it might have been in the past, the sheer size of the Fed’s current balance sheet makes it more critical than ever to improve the timing of monetary policy shifts.
“Central bankers need to stop clinging to policy orthodoxy and pay attention to proven cyclical leading inflation indicators that can actually tell them when inflation is about to take hold. Otherwise, if a well-meaning Fed stimulates the economy for too long, it will let inflation and/or asset prices get out of control, fostering boom-bust cycles that keep long-term unemployment at elevated readings as each short boom ends with a bust that pushes the jobless rate back up.” (emphasis mine)
Capacity Utilization Is Rising
First, let’s look at that “output gap.” The output gap, or GDP gap, is the difference between potential GDP and actual GDP, or actual output. The Congressional Budget Office makes an estimate that looks like this:
This “gap” coincides rather nicely with our old friend, Capacity Utilization. And while CU dropped to all-time lows during the last recession, it is up over 10% from the bottom, which is a much sharper recovery than during the previous recession.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) numbers are still good, both manufacturing and service sectors, although beginning to show some signs of price increases. Yes, there is still an “output gap,” but it is shrinking. If the chart below is any indication, that gap could be much smaller in a few years, assuming we do not experience a shock to the economy (more below).
Employment is (finally) looking better. Slowly, we are seeing initial unemployment claims come down from the record highs of a few years ago. The Fed sees the total number of unemployed and says there is no pressure on wage inflation. I think it may be more subtle than that.
Let’s look at a graph from chapter 4 of Endgame: What it shows is that employment is very skewed, as is income. This was as of the end of 2009, but the principle is the same.
The clear problem in the United States is this: If the highly skilled have 2.5 percent unemployment, how do you reduce that? You can’t. That is probably the natural frictional rate of unemployment, that is, people naturally moving between jobs or geographies. Faster economic growth or more money supply won’t bring down a 2.5 percent unemployment rate.
There are clear trends developing. Those who have attained a higher level of education are not suffering to nearly the same extent as those at the lower end of the educational scale. Indeed, conditions for certain highly skilled workers could be described as tight.
Furthermore, those who find themselves out of work are on average out of work longer now. The average time of unemployment has sharply increased from less than 20 weeks only two years ago to more than 30 weeks now—a 50 percent increase. Those unemployed for shorter lengths of time now make up much less of the total than they used to.
The majority of unemployed workers are instead primarily those in a chronic state of joblessness. Such people find it ever harder to get back into employment as their skills become rusty. This phenomenon is not confined to the United States. A similar pattern is developing in the United Kingdom and throughout the developed world. The stories of chronic unemployment in Portugal, where fewer than 30% have high school degrees, have been everywhere of late, as Portugal becomes the latest of the euro-area countries to need funding help.
There are two main types of unemployment: structural and cyclical. In this downturn we have seen fewer hours worked and lower pay; these are cyclical. More ominous, though, has been the structural decline in the civilian participation rate. There has been an extreme rise in the number of long-term unemployed, who now make up almost 3.5 percent of the labor force. Because the U.S. economy needs to shift from consumption, real estate, and finance toward manufacturing, many of the unemployed will not return to their old jobs.
“As U.S. economic growth begins to revive, the long-term jobless rate, which is still around record highs, remains a festering sore. However, it’s obvious from a scrutiny of past cyclical patterns that only a long economic expansion – like those in the 1980s and 1990s – can heal that wound.” (ECRI)
“Only a long economic expansion” is the right answer. Another recession would obviously not be good for employment.
Inflation Expectations
As noted above, the Fed pays a great deal of attention to inflation expectations and says that today such expectations are low. Let’s look at two charts (courtesy of Scott Grannis, http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2011/04/monetary-policy-update.html) which suggest that such a benign outlook may not be in our future.
“The message of both charts is the same: inflation expectations are rising significantly. Fed supporters would be quick to note that this could just be a rational reaction to the recent and continuing rise in oil prices. But Fed critics have more ammunition: the very weak dollar, the broad-based rise in commodity prices, the all-time highs in precious metals, and the substantial rise observed to date in the producer price indices and the ISM prices paid indices. There is no shortage of evidence that monetary policy is extremely accommodative and inflation pressures are building. The last refuge of the inflation doves (the Phillips Curve theory of inflation) is being dismantled almost daily, as prices all over the world rise even as there remains plenty of slack in the U.S. economy.” (Scott Grannis)
I wrote a few weeks ago:
“And core inflation may soon be under pressure. There were two articles yesterday, one from Yahoo and the other on Bloomberg. Both related to rising pressure on rental costs. (My recent lease renewal increase was significantly above core CPI!) (From http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/rents-could-rise-10-in-some-cities.html)
“Already, rental vacancy rates have dipped below the 10% mark, where they had been lodged for most of the past three years. ‘The demand for rental housing has already started to increase,’ said Peggy Alford, president of Rent.com… By 2012, she predicts the vacancy rate will hover at a mere 5%. And with fewer units on the market, prices will explode.”
Look at this graph showing their projections:
Here’s what to pay attention to. Notice that since 2002 (or thereabouts) rental costs have been flat, and down of late (inflation-adjusted). If Rent.com projections are anywhere close, we could see a rise in rents of 15% by the end of 2012.
Let’s remember that 23% of the CPI and 40% of core CPI is Owner Equivalent Rent. If they are right, that adds about 3% to total CPI and 6% to core CPI! Will the Fed be telling us to focus on core inflation in 12-18 months? And those prices will start to show up steadily.
The Producer Price Index is rising at an annualized rate of 20%. This is starting to show up in consumer prices. Wal-Mart CEO Bill Simon recently stated that he sees “serious inflation” on the horizon, as US consumers face a sharp rise in inflation in the coming months for clothing, food, and other products. “Inflation is going to be serious. We are seeing cost increases starting to come through at a pretty rapid rate.” (Variant Perception)
The latest data we have on inflation shows that the trend is clearly up. In particular, notice the rise in the last three months since the beginning of QE2. Inflation is running at over 5% on an annualized basis. Companies like Kimberly (diapers, etc.), Colgate, P&G, and others all announced 5-7% price increases this week. These are companies that provide staples we all buy. Those prices matter. Even Wal-Mart will have to pass those increases on. To say that food and energy don’t matter misses the point. These items have real economic impact.
One last chart on inflation, and this goes back to the Future Inflation Gauge mentioned by ECRI. There is a clear correlation between the FIG and inflation, which suggests that we will soon see rising inflation.
The Transmission Mechanism
Everyone knows the Fed is going to finish this cycle of quantitative easing (QE2). But how does that translate into actual inflation?
It’s not showing up in the money supply as measured by M2. After a liquidity-induced jump during the recent crisis, M2 is growing roughly at the same rate as it has for years.
In fact, the excess money is showing up back at the Fed in the form of reserve balances with the various reserve banks.
So how is inflation showing up in commodities, oil, and food? Let me posit a few thoughts, although I am open to readers enlightening me further.
One, emerging markets are being forced to take on huge foreign reserves if they do not want to see their currencies rise. This means they are adopting the loose or easy monetary policy of the Fed, which means they are now being forced to deal with inflation. Stratfor reported today that Vietnam, for instance, has 14% inflation. China’s is in that range, notwithstanding the “official” numbers. That means they will have to allow their currencies to rise, but it also means that food and energy, which are close to 50% of their consumer spending, are very impactful. It means rising wages and higher costs, which the CEO of Wal-Mart says are now being passed on.
This easy-money policy means a lower dollar, which is another way of saying rising commodity costs, especially for oil.
And most importantly, this policy is in fact building in inflation expectations, which is most worrisome. Right now there is no fundamental reason the economy should roll back into recession in the near future. There is no need for QE3, although I have written about the potential problems when we stop the current QE2. But that being said, the US economy should be growing at almost 5% in this part of the recovery cycle, not 2.5%. This is a very weak recovery by historical standards.
What happens if there is an “exogenous” shock (something outside of the system)? What happens if there is a true sovereign debt banking crisis in Europe? That is in the realm of possibility, as I have discussed. So is another oil shock. That large weapons cache in Nigeria is worrisome. What would $150 oil do?
(Anecdotal comment. My middle son came to visit tonight on his motorcycle. “I only use the car now to go to pick up the kids at the day care. Gas is almost $4. Who can afford that? What the hell is that about, Dad?” I know some of you think I am insulated from the real world, but I see it in my childrens’ lives and those of their friends, almost every day.)
If the Fed felt compelled to “provide liquidity” through a dose of QE3, I think the markets would rebel. The dollar would certainly fall, driving up prices more, along with interest rates, if the last round is any indication.
I maintained at its outset that QE2 was bad policy, because it wasted a bullet that we might need one day. I worry about what happens if we continue to do that. Hopefully, we don’t have that shock and will have a long and sustained recovery, the government will bring the deficit down, and employment will rise. One can hope. But hope is not a strategy. We are in a hole and we seem to want to keep digging, at both the Fed and the US government. And we are exporting our problems of bad management to the world.
We have chosen deliberately to take the inflation road. We have not traveled that road for some time. The Fed may think they know what is around the curve and what to do if inflation comes back, but no two crises are the same. I worry about these things. If the Fed and the US government wanted a weaker dollar, the return of inflation, and the potential for yet another boom-bust, they could not have designed better policies than the ones they’re pursuing.
Portland, New York, and Home for a Few Weeks
I head for Portland tomorrow for a speech on Monday, back early Tuesday, and then off to New York for meetings on Wednesday. There, Tiffani and I will attend a charity event as the guests of Dr. Mike Roizen, for the HealthCorps®’ Fifth Annual Gala (the charity of his multi-bestselling co-author, Dr. Mehmet Oz). This year’s even, called “Fresh from the Garden Gala,” will raise funds to fight the child obesity and mental resilience crises and expand the organization’s groundbreaking in-school health educational and mentoring program. I understand there may be a few tickets left. Join us!
I will guest host on Bloomberg TV with Betty Liu from 9 to 10 on Thursday morning. I was on her show this week, and we had a lot of fun. You can watch at http://www.bloomberg.com/video/68351042/ . I then hop a plane back to Dallas to be with my friends at JGAM and treat their clients to a Texas BBQ at my home. Martin Barnes of BCA will also be there, and it is always good to be with him, as well as my partner Steve Blumenthal. And that starts a 13-day run of being home, which I am ready for!
I will be in Philadelphia Tuesday May 24 to moderate a panel and listen to a serious line-up of speakers at the 29th Annual Monetary and Trade Conference, where the topics are "Is Housing Ready for a Rebound?” and “QE2, Housing and Foreclosures: Are they Related?” Philly Fed president Tom Hoenig, Chris Whalen, Michael Lewitt, Paul McCulley, William Poole, and Gretchen Morgensen will join us, among others. To find out more you can go to http://www.interdependence.org/Event-05-24-11.php.
It is time to hit the send button. I started this letter intending to quote only a few lines from the poem by Robert Frost, but it is so short and so wonderfully done that I decided we could all use a little uplift. Enjoy your week.
Your worried about the cost of inflation on our kids analyst,
John Mauldin
John@FrontlineThoughts.com
Copyright 2011 John Mauldin. All Rights Reserved
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The Curve in the Road
By John Mauldin | April 8, 2011
In this issue:
The Curve in the Road
Capacity Utilization Is Rising
Inflation Expectations
The Transmission Mechanism
Portland, New York, and Home for a Few Weeks
TWO roads diverged in a yellow wood,
And sorry I could not travel both
And be one traveler, long I stood
And looked down one as far as I could
To where it bent in the undergrowth;
Then took the other, as just as fair,
And having perhaps the better claim,
Because it was grassy and wanted wear;
Though as for that the passing there
Had worn them really about the same,
And both that morning equally lay
In leaves no step had trodden black.
Oh, I kept the first for another day!
Yet knowing how way leads on to way,
I doubted if I should ever come back.
I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.
– Robert Frost
“I shall be telling this with a sigh,” and it is with a sigh that I write about the twisting, uncertain roads of inflation and deflation. Long-time readers know I have made hard arguments for first deflation and then inflation in the US. But the data says the Fed is not seeing around the bend in the inflationary road all that well. Their signs are not giving them warning, and they are in danger of falling behind the curve. This week’s letter is a thought game in which we entertain the possibility of rising inflation in the US. (It will print a little longer, as there are a lot of charts!)
Quickly, Endgame is doing well, and I want to thank those of you who have read the book and given me feedback. I appreciate it. You can read the reviews at Amazon.com . And now to this week’s letter.
The Curve in the Road
Back in 2002 (or so) I was writing about the curve in the road. In fact, that was the working title for Bull’s Eye Investing as I was writing it. The concept is that one cannot see around the curve in the road, so it is very important to read the signs and have good maps as you go along.
Bernanke (and Dudley) have been testifying that inflation is not an issue. But what signs and maps are they reading? Bernanke specifically invokes inflation expectations as being most important, and he contends they are low. They both note that the “output gap” (more on it later) is still high and that wage inflation is unlikely in a period of high unemployment. But, as Greenspan recently said, “The problem is, none of these indicators will tell you when inflation is about to take hold.”
The Economic Cycle Research Institute wrote what I think is a very powerful editorial about the problem with Fed policy and inflation. I will quote some of the more important paragraphs, but you can read the piece in its entirety at http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/2137/.
“By using good cyclical indicators, you can – and we do – correctly forecast when inflation is about to take hold.
“And it’s precisely because the Fed – first under Mr. Greenspan and now under Mr. Bernanke – adamantly believes that inflation turning points can’t be predicted, that the current U.S. recovery stands in danger of being snuffed out prematurely.
“ECRI’s future inflation gauges – which, unlike econometric models, monitor the evolution of self-feeding cycles in inflation – are designed to do just what Mr. Greenspan says can’t be done. Specifically, they are more direct measures of underlying inflation pressures that signal the timing of upcoming inflation cycle turning points. In fact, they also anticipate inflation expectations.
“… The Fed’s ongoing reliance on inflation expectations, along with core inflation and the output gap – which Mr. Greenspan agrees don’t work – strongly implies that they have no workable tools to decide when to pull back on stimulus. Their incoherence about policy timing is rooted in the belief expressed by Mr. Greenspan that forward-looking indicators of inflation can’t tell when inflation is about to take hold.
“Mr. Greenspan and his successor, Mr. Bernanke, are top-notch economists in an echo chamber where they are surrounded by other economists, who all tend to believe, deep down, that the best forward-looking information must be found in market prices. This is an economist’s mistake. Even in the face of compelling evidence that markets aren’t the best predictors of what’s around the bend, it’s really hard for economists to abandon their basic world-view.
“This keeps the Fed chronically behind the curve. The “insurance” taken out by the Fed has been far from costless, especially in terms of the collateral damage from unintended consequences. Yet, damaging as it might have been in the past, the sheer size of the Fed’s current balance sheet makes it more critical than ever to improve the timing of monetary policy shifts.
“Central bankers need to stop clinging to policy orthodoxy and pay attention to proven cyclical leading inflation indicators that can actually tell them when inflation is about to take hold. Otherwise, if a well-meaning Fed stimulates the economy for too long, it will let inflation and/or asset prices get out of control, fostering boom-bust cycles that keep long-term unemployment at elevated readings as each short boom ends with a bust that pushes the jobless rate back up.” (emphasis mine)
Capacity Utilization Is Rising
First, let’s look at that “output gap.” The output gap, or GDP gap, is the difference between potential GDP and actual GDP, or actual output. The Congressional Budget Office makes an estimate that looks like this:
This “gap” coincides rather nicely with our old friend, Capacity Utilization. And while CU dropped to all-time lows during the last recession, it is up over 10% from the bottom, which is a much sharper recovery than during the previous recession.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) numbers are still good, both manufacturing and service sectors, although beginning to show some signs of price increases. Yes, there is still an “output gap,” but it is shrinking. If the chart below is any indication, that gap could be much smaller in a few years, assuming we do not experience a shock to the economy (more below).
Employment is (finally) looking better. Slowly, we are seeing initial unemployment claims come down from the record highs of a few years ago. The Fed sees the total number of unemployed and says there is no pressure on wage inflation. I think it may be more subtle than that.
Let’s look at a graph from chapter 4 of Endgame: What it shows is that employment is very skewed, as is income. This was as of the end of 2009, but the principle is the same.
The clear problem in the United States is this: If the highly skilled have 2.5 percent unemployment, how do you reduce that? You can’t. That is probably the natural frictional rate of unemployment, that is, people naturally moving between jobs or geographies. Faster economic growth or more money supply won’t bring down a 2.5 percent unemployment rate.
There are clear trends developing. Those who have attained a higher level of education are not suffering to nearly the same extent as those at the lower end of the educational scale. Indeed, conditions for certain highly skilled workers could be described as tight.
Furthermore, those who find themselves out of work are on average out of work longer now. The average time of unemployment has sharply increased from less than 20 weeks only two years ago to more than 30 weeks now—a 50 percent increase. Those unemployed for shorter lengths of time now make up much less of the total than they used to.
The majority of unemployed workers are instead primarily those in a chronic state of joblessness. Such people find it ever harder to get back into employment as their skills become rusty. This phenomenon is not confined to the United States. A similar pattern is developing in the United Kingdom and throughout the developed world. The stories of chronic unemployment in Portugal, where fewer than 30% have high school degrees, have been everywhere of late, as Portugal becomes the latest of the euro-area countries to need funding help.
There are two main types of unemployment: structural and cyclical. In this downturn we have seen fewer hours worked and lower pay; these are cyclical. More ominous, though, has been the structural decline in the civilian participation rate. There has been an extreme rise in the number of long-term unemployed, who now make up almost 3.5 percent of the labor force. Because the U.S. economy needs to shift from consumption, real estate, and finance toward manufacturing, many of the unemployed will not return to their old jobs.
“As U.S. economic growth begins to revive, the long-term jobless rate, which is still around record highs, remains a festering sore. However, it’s obvious from a scrutiny of past cyclical patterns that only a long economic expansion – like those in the 1980s and 1990s – can heal that wound.” (ECRI)
“Only a long economic expansion” is the right answer. Another recession would obviously not be good for employment.
Inflation Expectations
As noted above, the Fed pays a great deal of attention to inflation expectations and says that today such expectations are low. Let’s look at two charts (courtesy of Scott Grannis, http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2011/04/monetary-policy-update.html) which suggest that such a benign outlook may not be in our future.
“The message of both charts is the same: inflation expectations are rising significantly. Fed supporters would be quick to note that this could just be a rational reaction to the recent and continuing rise in oil prices. But Fed critics have more ammunition: the very weak dollar, the broad-based rise in commodity prices, the all-time highs in precious metals, and the substantial rise observed to date in the producer price indices and the ISM prices paid indices. There is no shortage of evidence that monetary policy is extremely accommodative and inflation pressures are building. The last refuge of the inflation doves (the Phillips Curve theory of inflation) is being dismantled almost daily, as prices all over the world rise even as there remains plenty of slack in the U.S. economy.” (Scott Grannis)
I wrote a few weeks ago:
“And core inflation may soon be under pressure. There were two articles yesterday, one from Yahoo and the other on Bloomberg. Both related to rising pressure on rental costs. (My recent lease renewal increase was significantly above core CPI!) (From http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/rents-could-rise-10-in-some-cities.html)
“Already, rental vacancy rates have dipped below the 10% mark, where they had been lodged for most of the past three years. ‘The demand for rental housing has already started to increase,’ said Peggy Alford, president of Rent.com… By 2012, she predicts the vacancy rate will hover at a mere 5%. And with fewer units on the market, prices will explode.”
Look at this graph showing their projections:
Here’s what to pay attention to. Notice that since 2002 (or thereabouts) rental costs have been flat, and down of late (inflation-adjusted). If Rent.com projections are anywhere close, we could see a rise in rents of 15% by the end of 2012.
Let’s remember that 23% of the CPI and 40% of core CPI is Owner Equivalent Rent. If they are right, that adds about 3% to total CPI and 6% to core CPI! Will the Fed be telling us to focus on core inflation in 12-18 months? And those prices will start to show up steadily.
The Producer Price Index is rising at an annualized rate of 20%. This is starting to show up in consumer prices. Wal-Mart CEO Bill Simon recently stated that he sees “serious inflation” on the horizon, as US consumers face a sharp rise in inflation in the coming months for clothing, food, and other products. “Inflation is going to be serious. We are seeing cost increases starting to come through at a pretty rapid rate.” (Variant Perception)
The latest data we have on inflation shows that the trend is clearly up. In particular, notice the rise in the last three months since the beginning of QE2. Inflation is running at over 5% on an annualized basis. Companies like Kimberly (diapers, etc.), Colgate, P&G, and others all announced 5-7% price increases this week. These are companies that provide staples we all buy. Those prices matter. Even Wal-Mart will have to pass those increases on. To say that food and energy don’t matter misses the point. These items have real economic impact.
One last chart on inflation, and this goes back to the Future Inflation Gauge mentioned by ECRI. There is a clear correlation between the FIG and inflation, which suggests that we will soon see rising inflation.
The Transmission Mechanism
Everyone knows the Fed is going to finish this cycle of quantitative easing (QE2). But how does that translate into actual inflation?
It’s not showing up in the money supply as measured by M2. After a liquidity-induced jump during the recent crisis, M2 is growing roughly at the same rate as it has for years.
In fact, the excess money is showing up back at the Fed in the form of reserve balances with the various reserve banks.
So how is inflation showing up in commodities, oil, and food? Let me posit a few thoughts, although I am open to readers enlightening me further.
One, emerging markets are being forced to take on huge foreign reserves if they do not want to see their currencies rise. This means they are adopting the loose or easy monetary policy of the Fed, which means they are now being forced to deal with inflation. Stratfor reported today that Vietnam, for instance, has 14% inflation. China’s is in that range, notwithstanding the “official” numbers. That means they will have to allow their currencies to rise, but it also means that food and energy, which are close to 50% of their consumer spending, are very impactful. It means rising wages and higher costs, which the CEO of Wal-Mart says are now being passed on.
This easy-money policy means a lower dollar, which is another way of saying rising commodity costs, especially for oil.
And most importantly, this policy is in fact building in inflation expectations, which is most worrisome. Right now there is no fundamental reason the economy should roll back into recession in the near future. There is no need for QE3, although I have written about the potential problems when we stop the current QE2. But that being said, the US economy should be growing at almost 5% in this part of the recovery cycle, not 2.5%. This is a very weak recovery by historical standards.
What happens if there is an “exogenous” shock (something outside of the system)? What happens if there is a true sovereign debt banking crisis in Europe? That is in the realm of possibility, as I have discussed. So is another oil shock. That large weapons cache in Nigeria is worrisome. What would $150 oil do?
(Anecdotal comment. My middle son came to visit tonight on his motorcycle. “I only use the car now to go to pick up the kids at the day care. Gas is almost $4. Who can afford that? What the hell is that about, Dad?” I know some of you think I am insulated from the real world, but I see it in my childrens’ lives and those of their friends, almost every day.)
If the Fed felt compelled to “provide liquidity” through a dose of QE3, I think the markets would rebel. The dollar would certainly fall, driving up prices more, along with interest rates, if the last round is any indication.
I maintained at its outset that QE2 was bad policy, because it wasted a bullet that we might need one day. I worry about what happens if we continue to do that. Hopefully, we don’t have that shock and will have a long and sustained recovery, the government will bring the deficit down, and employment will rise. One can hope. But hope is not a strategy. We are in a hole and we seem to want to keep digging, at both the Fed and the US government. And we are exporting our problems of bad management to the world.
We have chosen deliberately to take the inflation road. We have not traveled that road for some time. The Fed may think they know what is around the curve and what to do if inflation comes back, but no two crises are the same. I worry about these things. If the Fed and the US government wanted a weaker dollar, the return of inflation, and the potential for yet another boom-bust, they could not have designed better policies than the ones they’re pursuing.
Portland, New York, and Home for a Few Weeks
I head for Portland tomorrow for a speech on Monday, back early Tuesday, and then off to New York for meetings on Wednesday. There, Tiffani and I will attend a charity event as the guests of Dr. Mike Roizen, for the HealthCorps®’ Fifth Annual Gala (the charity of his multi-bestselling co-author, Dr. Mehmet Oz). This year’s even, called “Fresh from the Garden Gala,” will raise funds to fight the child obesity and mental resilience crises and expand the organization’s groundbreaking in-school health educational and mentoring program. I understand there may be a few tickets left. Join us!
I will guest host on Bloomberg TV with Betty Liu from 9 to 10 on Thursday morning. I was on her show this week, and we had a lot of fun. You can watch at http://www.bloomberg.com/video/68351042/ . I then hop a plane back to Dallas to be with my friends at JGAM and treat their clients to a Texas BBQ at my home. Martin Barnes of BCA will also be there, and it is always good to be with him, as well as my partner Steve Blumenthal. And that starts a 13-day run of being home, which I am ready for!
I will be in Philadelphia Tuesday May 24 to moderate a panel and listen to a serious line-up of speakers at the 29th Annual Monetary and Trade Conference, where the topics are "Is Housing Ready for a Rebound?” and “QE2, Housing and Foreclosures: Are they Related?” Philly Fed president Tom Hoenig, Chris Whalen, Michael Lewitt, Paul McCulley, William Poole, and Gretchen Morgensen will join us, among others. To find out more you can go to http://www.interdependence.org/Event-05-24-11.php.
It is time to hit the send button. I started this letter intending to quote only a few lines from the poem by Robert Frost, but it is so short and so wonderfully done that I decided we could all use a little uplift. Enjoy your week.
Your worried about the cost of inflation on our kids analyst,
John Mauldin
John@FrontlineThoughts.com
Copyright 2011 John Mauldin. All Rights Reserved
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4.14.2011
Emily Bazelon: The Phoebe Prince Vampire
You knew that someone would be trolling over the Phoebe Prince case to make money and Emily Bazelon got the prize. Without a doubt, she is looking for a book deal and pumping up interest with her stories about the case.
Of course, it has to take a different angle than the press has. She won on that score also. Ms. Bazelon "hasn't talked to a single teenager in South Hadley who agrees with the D.A. that what happened to Phoebe was much out of the ordinary." I think that says more about that awful school than anything else. As teenagers, what they lack is perspective, maturity and full moral development. Why would that be your standard of reference?
From the beginning, Emily Bazelon's perspective on Phoebe Prince's suicide and the factors surrounding it have been skewed against sympathy for the dead girl. The quotes she relies upon to set up her arguments are from teenagers and defense attorneys.
Phoebe Prince may have been a troubled girl. NEWSFLASH: Troubled girls abound in today's high schools. In fact, one might say that every girl is troubled at some point in her teen years. Group attacks on the weak are an animal instinct, and something we should strive to evolve beyond. Setting group norms for behavior is a part of doing that.
I applaud any efforts to do it.
Of course, it has to take a different angle than the press has. She won on that score also. Ms. Bazelon "hasn't talked to a single teenager in South Hadley who agrees with the D.A. that what happened to Phoebe was much out of the ordinary." I think that says more about that awful school than anything else. As teenagers, what they lack is perspective, maturity and full moral development. Why would that be your standard of reference?
From the beginning, Emily Bazelon's perspective on Phoebe Prince's suicide and the factors surrounding it have been skewed against sympathy for the dead girl. The quotes she relies upon to set up her arguments are from teenagers and defense attorneys.
Phoebe Prince may have been a troubled girl. NEWSFLASH: Troubled girls abound in today's high schools. In fact, one might say that every girl is troubled at some point in her teen years. Group attacks on the weak are an animal instinct, and something we should strive to evolve beyond. Setting group norms for behavior is a part of doing that.
I applaud any efforts to do it.
4.13.2011
Phoebe Prince, and Getting Someone Else to Write About It Other Than Emily Bazelon
When the Huffington Post featured this Slate story, it had the usual opportunity to vote for a reaction. "Appalling" was not one of the options, but should have been.
Emily Bazelon wrote an in-depth article on the suicide of Phoebe Prince and the factors leading up to it. "Is it really fair to lay the burden of Phoebe's suicide on these kids?" she asks. Her investigation reveals "the uncomfortable fact that Phoebe helped set in motion the conflicts with other students that ended in them turning on her." The entire article mentions nothing that Phoebe did other than date older or popular boys that several of the bullies had their eyes on.
Essentially, Phoebe was a pretty, attractive young woman who liked the attention of high school senior boys. The jealousy that inspired was natural, sure, but in the muck of teen social skills it's not like slashing tires and setting fires. The conflicts Phoebe Prince had prior to her suicide were a bunch of jealous girls attacking her, calling her "an Irish poser," as if someone actually from Ireland would be less Irish than Americans whose families had been here for generations.
Constant vicious name-calling and online attacks led Phoebe Prince to kill herself. How this culture of petty attack could be tolerated at school beggars the imagination.
The next article attacks the District Attorney for stretching the law to prosecute the teen abusers. Emily Bazelon quotes a criminal defense attorney for an opinion on prosecutorial overreach. No bias there. Added is a quote from another defense attorney who opposed the District Attorney in another matter which accuses her of "poor judgement." Getting the other side's lawyers to complain about you is no trick. Where are the quotes from her district attorney peers? Nowhere to be found.
Ms. Bazelon draws an analogy to another case where a gay teen is sexually assaulted in the cafeteria in a most degrading way. She complains that criminal charges were not necessary in that case because after reporting the incident to the school, the victim was "completely satisfied" with the way the school handled it. Oh really? And that means a crime should be ignored? A sexual assault in front of everyone in the school cafeteria? The DA didn't think so, and thank God for that. The judge in that case rightly pointed out "there are some things that an apology doesn't fix." Emily Bazelon holds this case out as an example of harsh justice and warns ominously that the Phoebe Prince bullies "could face a similar challenge."
And?
The power of the Phoebe Prince story, and its resulting prosecution, is that the information age has brought new dimensions to human interactions, including immature and cruel ones. The impact is different now than in years past. Part of the goal of the criminal prosecutions is to set a legal standard for online behavior. And to let people know that, yes, a price will have to be paid for all those comments.
There's an old Washington, DC political saying: If you don't want to see it on the front page of the Washington Post tomorrow, don't do it. That bit of wisdom now applies to everyone, even pimply, jealous teenagers.
Emily Bazelon wrote an in-depth article on the suicide of Phoebe Prince and the factors leading up to it. "Is it really fair to lay the burden of Phoebe's suicide on these kids?" she asks. Her investigation reveals "the uncomfortable fact that Phoebe helped set in motion the conflicts with other students that ended in them turning on her." The entire article mentions nothing that Phoebe did other than date older or popular boys that several of the bullies had their eyes on.
Essentially, Phoebe was a pretty, attractive young woman who liked the attention of high school senior boys. The jealousy that inspired was natural, sure, but in the muck of teen social skills it's not like slashing tires and setting fires. The conflicts Phoebe Prince had prior to her suicide were a bunch of jealous girls attacking her, calling her "an Irish poser," as if someone actually from Ireland would be less Irish than Americans whose families had been here for generations.
Constant vicious name-calling and online attacks led Phoebe Prince to kill herself. How this culture of petty attack could be tolerated at school beggars the imagination.
The next article attacks the District Attorney for stretching the law to prosecute the teen abusers. Emily Bazelon quotes a criminal defense attorney for an opinion on prosecutorial overreach. No bias there. Added is a quote from another defense attorney who opposed the District Attorney in another matter which accuses her of "poor judgement." Getting the other side's lawyers to complain about you is no trick. Where are the quotes from her district attorney peers? Nowhere to be found.
Ms. Bazelon draws an analogy to another case where a gay teen is sexually assaulted in the cafeteria in a most degrading way. She complains that criminal charges were not necessary in that case because after reporting the incident to the school, the victim was "completely satisfied" with the way the school handled it. Oh really? And that means a crime should be ignored? A sexual assault in front of everyone in the school cafeteria? The DA didn't think so, and thank God for that. The judge in that case rightly pointed out "there are some things that an apology doesn't fix." Emily Bazelon holds this case out as an example of harsh justice and warns ominously that the Phoebe Prince bullies "could face a similar challenge."
And?
The power of the Phoebe Prince story, and its resulting prosecution, is that the information age has brought new dimensions to human interactions, including immature and cruel ones. The impact is different now than in years past. Part of the goal of the criminal prosecutions is to set a legal standard for online behavior. And to let people know that, yes, a price will have to be paid for all those comments.
There's an old Washington, DC political saying: If you don't want to see it on the front page of the Washington Post tomorrow, don't do it. That bit of wisdom now applies to everyone, even pimply, jealous teenagers.
4.09.2011
NACA-Alert -NACA Highlighted on 60 Minutes comes to Philadelphia from April 7th through 11th
Call 202-285-5415, Axsmith Law in Washington, DC or visit our blog at http://axsmithlaw.wordpress.com/
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Dear Homeowner,
NACA's Save the Dream Tour is returning to Philadelphia. NACA was just highlighted on 60 Minutes for its incredibly successful Save-the-Dream Events where over half the homeowners receive a same day solution (click here to view 60 Minutes). Also Bruce Marks, NACA's founder and CEO, was interviewed on 60 Minutes (click here to view 60 Minutes interview). We will be at the Pennsylvania Convention Center from Thursday April 7th through Monday April 11th providing same-day affordable solutions. We will be there for five straight days with all the major servicers and investors. Everyone should come to Philadelphia who has not achieved an affordable solution should come.
NACA Philadelphia Save-the-Dream Event:NACA is determined to achieve your affordable solution. This is your opportunity to get it done. We strongly recommend that you come from near and far, particularly if you are frustrated with your Lender or Servicer due to lack of response, not getting an acceptable solution, not being satisfied with your solution, being denied a solution, or other issues you have with your Lender or Servicer.
- Location: Pennsylvania Convention Center, Hall F (1101 Arch Street, Philadelphia, PA)
- Starts: Thursday April 7th at 8:00 a.m.
- Ends: Monday April 11th at 8:00 p.m.
- Hours: 8:00 a.m. – 8:00 p.m. everyday
NACA will not rest until we achieve affordable solutions for our at-risk homeowners (i.e. click here for the video of NACA's CEO being arrested at the Senate Banking Committee hearing protesting Chase). We expect many thousands of homeowners with an unaffordable mortgage to attend with thousands achieving same day solutions during the event. These NACA events have been incredibly successful and have become the only viable solution for large numbers of at-risk homeowners. Many homeowners have had their mortgage payments permanently reduced by over $500 a month, and some by over $1,000, often with interest rates reduced to 3% or 2%, and sometimes a principal reduction. Many more homeowners are obtaining a principal reduction first. All of NACA's services are FREE.Tell your family, friends, neighbors and co-workers. NACA provides the best solution to the mortgage crisis. You have everything to gain and nothing to lose - there is no cost and the major lenders and investors will be on site. Do not miss this opportunity to make your mortgage payment affordable! We look forward in assisting you in achieving your affordable long-term solution.
- Bring your most recent 30 days of pay stubs or other verification of income (self-employed members please provide six months of bank statements). If you have been working with NACA, you should also access your Web-File to review the most recent updates and your next steps – Click here to review your Web-File.
- Philadelphia Outreach flyer - Click here to print or send flyer.
FORWARD THIS ON YOUR FACEBOOK, TWITTER, OR OTHER SOCIAL NETWORKING SITE
Links about Save-the-Dream Events: Sincerely,
NACA Management
P.S. You have everything to gain and nothing to lose – IT IS FREE and the major lenders and investors will be available. Come Early. Do not miss this incredible opportunity. Tell your friends, family, co-workers, and others. Remember its starts Thursday April 7th through Monday April 11th at the Pennsylvania Convention Center, Hall F (1101 Arch Street, Philadelphia, PA). You can register via www.naca.com or call 888-499-6222 but it is not a requirement.
Estimados Dueños de Casa,
La Gira de NACA "Salve su Casa" llega a Philadelphia. NACA fue entrevistada en 60 Minutes por sus exitosa Gira "Salva su Casa" donde mas de la mitad de los propetarios obtienen soluciones el mismo dia. (presione aqui para ver la entrevista). NACA va a estar en el Pennsylvania County Convention Center desde el Jueves 7 de Abril hasta el Lunes 11 de Abril ofreciendo soluciones solventes el mismo día. Estaremos en Philadelphia por 5 días consecutivos con todos los mayores inversionistas y bancos hipotecarios. Todos que puedan viajar a Philadelphia y que no hayan logrado un pago hipotecario solvente deben venir.
La Gira de NACA Salve su Casa regresa a PhiladelphiaNACA esta determinado en lograr una solución permanente para usted. Esta es su oportunidad de lograrlo. Recomendamos fuertemente que vengan de todas partes, especialmente si esta frustrado con su Prestamista debido a que no ha conseguido una respuesta o solución aceptable, si no esta satisfecho con su solución, si ha sido negado a una solución o cualquiera que fuese la situación en que se encuentre con su Prestamista.
- Lugar: Pennsylvania Convention Center, Hall F (1101 Arch Street, Philadelphia, PA)
- Comienza: Jueves 7 de Abril a las 8:00 a.m.
- Termina: Lunes 11 de Abril a las 8:00 p.m
- Horas: 8:00 a.m. – 8:00 p.m. todo los días
NACA no descansará hasta lograr soluciones solventes para nuestros propietarios de viviendas en situación de riesgo ( Presione aquí para ver el video del Director Ejecutivo y Fundador de NACA siendo detenido en la audiencia del Comité Bancario del Senado protestando contra Chase). Estamos esperando que asistan miles de propietarios que tienen hipotecas no solventes y que podamos ayudar a miles a lograr una solución permanente el mismo día. Los eventos de NACA han sido increíblemente exitosos y han llegado a ser la única solución viable para muchos propietarios en peligro de perder su casa. Muchos propietarios han tenido sus pagos de hipoteca reducidos permanente por más de $500 por mes y para algunos ha sido más de $1.000, a menudo con tipos de interés reducidos a un 3% o 2% y muchas veces si es necesario han obtenido reducción de su principal. Los servicios de NACA son absolutamente GRATIS.Cuéntele a su familia, amigos, vecinos y compañeros de trabajo. NACA ofrece la mejor solución a la crisis hipotecaria. Usted tiene todo que ganar y nada que perder - no hay costo alguno y los prestamistas y inversionistas principales estarán presentes. ¡No pierda esta oportunidad de tener un pago de hipoteca solvente! Esperamos verlo y ayudarle en obtener una solución de largo plazo solvente.
- Traiga sus ultimos 30 dias de comprobantes de pago más recientes (últimos 30 días) u otra verificación de ingreso (trabajadores independientes o por cuenta propia deben traer los ultimos seis meses de sus estados de cuenta bancarios). Usted debe también ingresar a su archivo electrónico para ver los mensajes más recientes y sus pasos a seguir - Presione aquí para ingresar a su Archivo Electrónico.
- Folleto del Evento en Philadelphia - Presione aquí para imprimir o para enviar el folleto.
POR FAVOR COMPARTA ESTA INFORMACION EN SU FACEBOOK, MYSPACE, TWITER O EN CUALQUIER OTRO SITIO DE LA INTERNET Y DELE LA OPORTUNIDAD A ALGUIEN MAS DE SALVAR SU CASA.
Enlaces sobre los eventos, Salvando Sueños con NACA: Sinceramente,
La Gerencia de NACA.
P.S. Usted tiene todo que ganar y nada que perder – ES ABSOLUTAMENTE GRATIS y los prestamistas e inversionistas principales estarán disponibles. Venga temprano! No se pierda esta increíble oportunidad. Dígaselo a sus amigos, compañeros de trabajo y otros que se puedan beneficiar. Recuerde comienza el Jueves 7 de Abril hasta el Lunes 11 de Abril en el Pennsylvania Convention Center, Hall F (1101 Arch Street, Philadelphia, PA), por 5 días corridos. Para registrase visite www.naca.com o llame al 1-888-499-6222 (pero no es un requisito registrarse)
4.02.2011
Earthquake: M 6.2 - near the east coast of Honshu, Japan
Location: near the east coast of Honshu, Japan
Time: Thu, Mar 31, 2011 3:15:30 AM EDT
GMT: Thu, Mar 31, 2011 07:15:30 GMT
Latitude: 38° 57' 12" N (38.9536°)
Longitude: 142° 1' 2" E (142.0174°)
Depth: 24.6 mi
More Information (while available): http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc0002fj4.php
Data provided by US Geological Survey.
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Earthquake: M 3.2 - Sicily, Italy
Location: Sicily, Italy
Time: Sat, Apr 2, 2011 5:02:07 AM EDT
GMT: Sat, Apr 2, 2011 09:02:07 GMT
Latitude: 38° 28' 47" N (38.4800°)
Longitude: 12° 26' 23" E (12.4400°)
Depth: 16.8 mi
Map: http://maps.google.com/maps?q=M%203.2%20-%20Sicily%2C%20Italy@38.480000,12.440000&z=6
More Information (while available): http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=216577
Data provided by European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre.
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Earthquake: M 5.9 - Tarapaca, Chile
Location: Tarapaca, Chile
Time: Sat, Apr 2, 2011 6:59:37 AM EDT
GMT: Sat, Apr 2, 2011 10:59:37 GMT
Latitude: 19° 33' 19" S (-19.5555°)
Longitude: 69° 4' 18" W (-69.0718°)
Depth: 51.8 mi
Map: http://maps.google.com/maps?q=M%205.9%20-%20Tarapaca%2C%20Chile@-19.555500,-69.071800&z=6
More Information (while available): http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc0002hhd.php
Data provided by US Geological Survey.
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