An Iraq Exit Plan

The U.S. can get out of Iraq. Here 's how: Have a referendum on a Truth and Reconciliation Commission related to Saddam Hussein's era and its aftermath.

The logic is that the Iraqis will have to be willing to keep the peace all on their own. Getting along will mean having to get over the injustices done to them one way or another. And that applies to everyone.

But they won't be willing to. They won't be willing to find a way to get past revenge and on to reconstruction.

And that's when the U.S. can get out of Iraq and save face. When the referendum is voted down.

We can't make the Iraqi government have a referendum. So we can do it online ourselves. It would be a total farce, of course. But relative to other plans, not such a bad idea.

Or the referendum can be shown in another way, such as stopping violence to talk.

There needs to be a way that the Iraqi people can show their commitment to moving forward. And fail. Then we have an out.


Michael said...

You are dead-on about the US needing an out. I think that is what Bush's recently outlined strategy is designed to do. He set a timetable for the Iraqis to field additional troops, and as warned them that further US aid, after the initial military push, will be conditional on Iraqi effectiveness.

It's longer term than what you're describing, but I think the effect will be the same:
The Iraqis will fail to hold up their end, and then Bush will have his out.

The Lazy Iguana said...

But then what happens? Iran supports the Shi'a, the Saudis support the Sunnis, and all hell breaks loose? And when the Iran backed majority are about to win, Saudi Arabia launches an attack on Iran? Then the whole middle east is at war.

Just one possible outcome here. But it is not far fetched.

Bush had his out before he invaded. But he invaded. And now, like it or not, we ARE stuck there! There is no way out really. At least no way out that will NOT result is things getting a whole lot worse, and the entire region going up in flames. You think $3 a gallon gas was bad?

Michael said...

All hell is loose in Iraq. But the Iranian backed groups won't win; the US can't afford that, and will likeyly attack Iran to prevent it.

Saudi Arabia won't attack Iran; they are terrified of the Iranians.

The Iranians back the Shi'ites because they think the US is weak, but another carrier group has been deployed to the Persian Gulf- giving a total of 2 carrier groups and an amphibious group. That's enough power to defeat the Iranian navy and air force, and block all Iranian oil flow to the outside world.

If it comes to a fight with Iran, the US won't need to shift ground troops: navy and air forces can do the job, and completely strangle the Iranian economy. That would cut the support from under, not only the Shi'ite groups in Iraq, but also Hezbollah and Hamas: a huge victory for the war against terrorists.