1.28.2007

Sunni vs. Shiite

The bloodshed in the Palestinian Authority is the beginning of the entire region disintegrating. Centrufigal forces within Islam are now unstoppable, and every nation is going to be affected.

Europe and the U.S. will find fuel efficiency and alternative fuels to be fascinating very soon, and worthy of their attention and resources like never before. It will be amazing how quickly alternative fuels become cost-effective.

Russia will see its interests rise again. The immediate demand for oil will have them strutting around again like the old days. Maybe then Putin will smile. Europe will not be as calm the next time Putin throws a tantrum.

Venezuela will become even more insufferable. Brazil will join them.

The trade embargo against Cuba will be lifted.

Israel will have to confront its own problems and grapple with a potential civil war. The religious right will not be a winner in that one.

The political force that is modern Islam is a powerful one. Now let's watch them use that power to kill each other.

Usama bin Laden to Allah: I could have been a contender!

9 comments:

Fuzz said...

Pessimistic, but realistic.

CiscoKid said...

Armagedon...anyone?
Call it what you will, but that is what is coming-NOt in religious terms, but close.

Ferminator said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Econo-Girl said...

I am not posing these predictions as doomsday scenarios. They will happen, and the world will adapt. I don't even think they are necessarily bad. It's just different than our current expectations.

The Lazy Iguana said...

You know, just today I was talking with someone going to do some tel-com crap in Dubai. He asked me something interesting. What am I going to do about it.

Not what the USA is going to do. Not what the U.N. is going to do. But what will *I* do. Me.

I did not have an answer.

Michael said...

Israel will have to confront its own problems and grapple with a potential civil war. The religious right will not be a winner in that one.

I doubt this one... First, I doubt that Israel will have a civil war, and second, I doubt that the religious right will fall behind.

In Israel, the "religious right" usually means "religious Zionists," who, whatever their faults, are generally recognized as highly motivated and highly patriotic. They are in the acsendant (sp?), especially considering the absolute weakness of the Olmert gov't, and the absolute lack of a partner among the Palestinians.

After the twin traumas of the Gaza disengagement and the 2nd Lebanon War, Israelis are pretty much convinced that we can't afford disunity at times of crisis (even Olmert was popular last July), and when things get tough, Israelis have a tendency to pull together. I think that this will get stronger as the external dangers grow.

As for the States, I think a lot depends on who becomes the next Pres, and what he (or she) does about isolationist sentiment.

I think that Econo-girl is right about the muslim world pulling itself apart, but will not always be on sectarian lines... the palestinians are busy killing each other now, in a Sunni-Sunni power struggle, and Lebanon is just a multi-sectarian mess.

Don't know much about the other predictions. Very interesting post. Thought provoking.

LaDawn said...

Very clever post, econo-girl. I will be up all night fearing the future. As if global warming wasn't bad enough.....

Econo-Girl said...

Bush's isolationist sentiment is long gone. It blew up with the twin towers.

Yes, religious Zionists are highly motivated. But one of them did assassinate Rabin. That's not patriotic. There is a political and cultural struggle within Israel that all this fighting with neighbors is hiding. The same is true for Arab nations.

While you are correct in saying that Israel unites in times of adversity, I'm talking about a time of non-adversity. That's when the rifts always appear. The crisis will be within for Israel's identity.

All this is true for the Muslim world also.

Michael said...

Yes, a religious Zionist did shoot Rabin, but the r-Z community took a lot flack, and engaged in a lot of soul searching, over it. Most r-Z's were disgusted by Amir's act (tho not his opinion); I think that's one reason Olmert's still alive (not funny, I know).

I think that Israel can hold together in times of peace; it is something that all Israeli's desperately want. The main splits in society are between Jewish groups, but more between Jewish and non-Jewish groups: the Arab community and the non-Jewish Russian immigrants (about 400,000) both have serious integration problems that will need to be met.

On the other hand, the times of adversity look they aren't going anywhere soon...